Sunday, 10 June 2012

Winning a multi-innings game...

I've been spending some time with a friend who raised an Angel round late last year. Like all smart entrepreneurs, he raised sufficient funding to get him through the following 18 months. Now 6 months post funding, we sat down to take stock of the situation and plan for the future.

Its no secret that the fundraising process can be taxing and stressful - from living and breathing customers and revenue, you suddenly shunt from one conference room to another, gulping tea and coffee and answering every question humanly possible (and then more!). So when one finally gets funded, the natural thing to do is to celebrate, pack away the investor decks and dive right back into the business. But what about the next innings?

My friend had done similarly - having received funding, hundreds of things had popped up, from building out his team, upgrading the office, signing up partners, evolving the product and of course getting more customers. Net-net, while there had been a tremendous advancement in the company strategy in the last 6 month, to show for it we mostly had half-done projects and open job reqs. In fact the only thing complete was the move to a nicer office! Metrics were still flat from the point of funding, and maybe rightly so since only a few months had passed since the money actually came in the bank. But  didn't feel like we were building a company that would make investors hearts beat faster as we approached the next port of call - Series A.

Do some quick math - you raise funding for 18 months, these things always slip so maybe you have 16 months of headroom at the start line. Given projections are just projections, hitting your plan right down to the bottom line is hard, which might further reduce your time by 1-2 months. So in total, you might have raised funding for maybe just over a year! Since you want to raise funding when there still some cash left in the bank, entrepreneurs might need to be back on the funding bandwagon within 12 months of raising the last round. So if you don't plan for the next funding early enough, one fine day you realize that today is the day you need to start the fundraise process, to give you realistic odds of closing before the money runs out. At this point, the story that you craft for investors might be decided by how you can force fit what happened to work till then into a believable story, rather than how the metrics support your mid and long term vision.

So what is one to do? Fundraising can be more natural if you accept it for what it is - a multi-innings game where each round is judged by not just by where you are today, but also where you promised you would be in the last round. Here are a few pointers that I've picked up from the best in the business:
1. Be a Perpetual Networker - As an entrepreneur, your biggest job is to evangelize your startup and make sure its well-resourced. That includes hiring, revenue generation and fund raising. The latter often takes a backseat post-funding, and instead many entrepreneurs might only restart investor interaction right around the time they start the fundraise. Not recommended! Keep investors in the loop, especially those that you liked from previous interations. For a few hours each month you can keep them excited about the direction of the company, get some useful intros and hopefully make the next fundraise slightly less painful!  

2. Get the Metrics Right - Develop a trackable bottoms-up plan before you jump into execution. Today its possible to raise an angel round showing only high level projections. But seriously, saying that you'll hit $X million in revenues in 3 years or grow at 50% CAGR is meaningless! How will you know if the last month/week/day was productive?? Break down your success metrics into the smallest possible trackable units that can then be included in your personal dashboard.

3. Work backwards - This is the easiest one, and in my mind the most ignored. Think about it - today you already know that you'll run of money in X months, so you'll need to start raising funding in X-Y months. What story do you want to tell investors at that time? What would get them excited towards your venture? How would they look at your performance, both on an absolute and relative basis. You already know these facts today, why not factor them into your plan? I would also pay attention to feedback you received from investors who did not invest in you.

3. Build thought leadership - Let the market talk about you, and you won't need to pitch to anyone, investors will chase you!

4. Don't forget your exisitng investors - It's no secret that angels invest out of passion but have a full time job on the side. Though they might not proactively be spending enough time with you, keep them engaged! They are your best champions, which is why they participated in the first place. Adopting a clear engagement plan with them will help you leverage them efficiently, and provide you with great references for the next round.

Saturday, 12 May 2012

Walk down Silicon Alley...

Last week I had the opportunity to spend time with startups and tech companies in New York, aka Silicon Alley. The excitement in the startup and venture circles in the city was impressive. Previously where finance used to dominate all conversations, now its about ad tech, social/mobile and Pinterest clones. VC's seems to around each corner - from Accel, KP and Canaan, plus USV, DFJ, RRE and many more. More importantly, there is a passion towards entrepreneurship similar to what existed for maybe hedge funds previously, and investment banks before that.

The venture funding numbers confirm this transformation - in Q3 2011 New York beat Massachusetts for the first time in a decade to land $831 million in venture funding in 86 startups. Compare this to $260 million in Q3 2009 for 55 startups, and clearly something seems to be working to drive this growth. The successes coming out of the state also paint a glowing picture - Foursquare, Fab, Tumblr, ZocDoc, Gilt all are based out of New York.

What would it take to engineer a similar transformation in India? Could Bangalore, Mumbai or Delhi be the next hotspot of innovation? Speaking to a few veterans of the NY entrepreneurship scene revealed the following drivers behind this change:

  1. Macro environment: Wall Street is under fire, and engineers have realized that designing trading algorithm is neither very interesting nor might be well paying in the future. Inspite of its inefficiencies, movements like Occupy Wall Street seems to be chipping away at the image of financial firms. On the other hand Tech is cool, creates jobs and with the availability of easy venture funding makes for a no-brainer switch for many wannabe entrepreneurs. Though India's growth has slowed, we are still accelerating at a very respectable 6.9% rate - hopefully we can leverage this momentum instead of waiting for things to slow down before we start focusing on entrepreneurship.
  2. Government Support: The passion for entrepreneurship starts at the top - Mayor Bloomberg has himself founded a namesake company, and is an ardent supporter of startups in NY. Initiatives such as a new Tech campus in New York are ensuring continued supply of high quality tech talent. Plus NY's legislature is considering providing a 25% tax breaks to angel investors, while sadly here in India we are contemplating the exact opposite.
  3. Supportive Ecosystem: In addition to availability of capital (VCs) and techies, NY developed a healthy mentorship environment where experienced entrepreneurs advise new ones - giving back to the community. There are a dozen odd incubators providing early funding and support to startups. The last couple of years have undoubtedly seen rise of many incubators in India, however the level of support provided to entrepreneurs outside the top few is concerning. Incubators need to be powered by entrepreneurs - providing desk, chairs and few lakh rupees is unlikely to produce the next facebook from India.
  4. It takes time!: It took New York more than a decade of hard work to build the rich ecosystem that exits today. A few investors actively funded startups, some of these startups scaled up and provided a shining light for others to follow, as well as mentors to help guide them. As the next wave of startups continues to mature in India - from MakeMyTrip and Flipkart to InMobi and Snapdeal - hopefully we are also headed in the right direction.

Wednesday, 29 February 2012

eCommerce: The Path Ahead

(recently published article)
Now that the ecommerce funding party seems to winding down, everyone is staring at each other to determine who danced with whom, and who will get invited to the next party! And what a party it’s been! 2011 saw $600+ million invested in a $10 billion market with 10 million customers. While there are already concerns of bubbles, consolidation and non-existent margins, the truth is that now is the time that real businesses are being built. It no longer matters how few days it took to close your round, or how many VC hearts you broke ;-). With eyes back on the real game, here are a few factors that we’ve learnt matter – in India as well as globally.


Let’s start with the prize – what might it take to IPO, assuming that most ecommerce companies dream of going public one day. Consider DangDang, the Chinese multi-category ecommerce company that IPO-ed on the Nasdaq in 2010. At that time, the company had 1.6 million daily unique visitors, 28 million registered users, 78% revenues from repeat customers and offered Cash-on-delivery in 750 cities in China.  Product offerings included 590,000 book titles and 460,000 SKU’s of general merchandise products – from beauty to apparel and electronics.  Truly aspirational numbers, but how do you get there?


Let’s start at the top – how to monitor your traffic. Two good metrics to consider are conversion and bounce rate. Bounce rate is the percentage of people who come to your site but leave without viewing any other page. So if your bounce rate is 25%, quarter of the visitor who came to your website left after viewing only the first page on which they landed. Bounce rate hurts especially when your paid traffic has a high bounce – you essentially paid for clicks that never converted. Cutting your Google Analytics data by source should help uncover and optimize the non-performing sources. Conversion is the % of users that eventually transacted on your site, a great end-to-end look at your business. While we see typical conversion rates of 0.5-0.8%, sites such as ProFlowers in the US have 30% peak monthly conversion rates! So examine your funnel closely, and try to understand where and why any drop-off might be happening.


Traffic is good, but revenue even better. Most sites monitor overall and per customer revenue closely; however looking at revenue without the corresponding costs to get that revenue is obviously misleading. So unit economics – or looking at profitability per product - makes it apparent what was spent to earn a dollar. Amazon has a “CRAP (Can’t Realize Any Profit)” program – where they measure cost of each shipped product. They used data to realize that a best-selling folding chair was taking 20 minutes to pack thus obliterating all margins. Getting the supplier to send pre-packaged chairs solved the issue!


Cultivating your users to become loyal customers is the final piece of the puzzle – it’s no coincidence that DangDang had 78% repeat revenues, or that Amazon reportedly has a 65%+ repeat rate. It’s one thing to get someone to buy once, another to get them to come again and again. So check your cohorts by month – are you seeing a steady increase in per user buying behavior?


Off to the races!

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Brave new world...

Think about what role the mobile operator has been playing to-date:
  1. They own a pipe to transmit information (voice + data)
  2. They own a touch point to the customer (and hence impact the choices I make)
  3. They own a mechanism to charge the customer - either stored value or monthly billing
Long-term which of these will be critical? The pipe is a commodity - as I mentioned in the last post, we have 5-10 such "pipes" floating around at any given location in the country. The touch point is critical, to establish the connect between customers and the network - however once customers are connected, there is a resentment toward anyone limiting their choices...customers prefer the "chaos of choice" over a "curated calmness".
#3 here is the most critical, and in my mind, the lasting value-add of operator -- enabling me to pay. Why is this one lasting? Because customers themselves need someone to play this role, and who better than someone who already has a billing relationship with me, someone who has thousands of retail points across the country. Add to that the fact that customers are unwilling to use plastic, and I think operators are all set as the mobile payment enablers.

Now think of a new world where the operator magically accepts their new role, and transforms a broken industry. For the app creator, their side on the revenue share equation switches to give them majority ownership of the value created. With this new viability, the pace of innovation on mobile apps accelerates...leaving CBRT far behind :). Operators start providing open access to all apps created instead of this sorry excuse for an app store! ("Spicy Jokes", anyone?!). And while we're at it, all of Gurgaon's roads get repaired and Delhi doesn't flood during the monsoon!

But seriously, the reality might be something like this - starting from the current single player VAS world, 3 different providers emerge:

  • Traditional VAS: The legacy players hum along, supported by their legacy (but declining) businesses, while searching for new stream of revenue - both new products and new geographies. Smaller one die out as they're unable to cross the unexpected chasm. If you look at one of the public VAS player's quarterly revenues, the entire focus is on International, while India continues to decline due to "lower quality of users and reliance on the operator". Tough times!

  • App Economy: With 10+ million smartphone shipped in 2011, there are enough app hungry users today to dream of building a viable apps-based business. So everything from music and videos to location services and mcommerce will see action this year. Payments remains a roadblock, so while that piece gets figured out, businesses will focus on driving adoption and engagement - monetization to hopefully follow soon.

  • Hybrid Player: How do you (mildly) twist the operators arm and force them to share? Build a direct connect to the customer and effective remove them from the coveted middle-man position. App developers create and the user votes with his downloads. Continue to use the operators infrastructure, but since the operator no longer markets, they are relegated to a payment providers role and corresponding revenue share. Undoubtedly this is non-trivial - so companies with some kind of existing customer connect, either offline or through other media like TV, will be able to play here. But for the near future, this might be the most exciting mobile space...

Comments welcome...

Thursday, 2 February 2012

Setting the mobile context...

India and "mobile" have been synonymous for as long as I can remember. To the extent that most of us have forgotten what the acronym PCO stood for, let alone see one in our part of the woods! We all complain about SMS spam, ineffective call blocking and poor network coverage. Some of us have also starting tinkering with apps, 3G and 6 inch phone screens. The broader reality of course is very different.

Looking at the commonly known metrics, starting with the biggest numbers -
  • 894 million mobile subscribers
  • 15 mobile operators
  • 85% revenues from voice
  • $4 average revenue per user per month - among the lowest worldwide!
  • ~97% connections are pre-paid
Read the numbers carefully and you should start to get some sense of the market. Cellphones are everywhere, especially in metros where penetration in greater than 100%. More operators => high competition => cheaper services (I pay $8 for an all-you-can-eat national data plan!). 85% voice revenues means either we talk a lot here ;-), or we don't have much going on in terms of non-voice services. And the low ARPU and pre-paid connections are closely related as well - but let's look at VAS first.

Value Added Services - operator marketed, billed services started with BSNL's wake-up call services back in the old days. Since then, mobile operators have been hawking everything from callerback ringtones to wallpapers - both telling me what to buy, and enabling me to complete the purchase through my mobile account. For this "amazing" service, operators have kept 60-70% of the revenues from consumers! The rest is split up between VAS providers and the poor guy who developed the content. Not a pretty business to be in!

So in this world where the developers make pennies (or paise!), there really hasn't been much passion to innovate - why bother when someone else will keep 80% of the value you create! One of the operators VAS page really gives you a good idea what kind of products we're dealing with here - this in a world of apps like Pinterest and Instagram.

Why not sidestep the operator and go directly to consumer, especially with platforms like Android and iOS? Payments! Across multiple sectors - eCommerce to mobile - lack of payment mechanisms continues to be a roadblock. While ecommerce seems to have found a Cash-On-Delivery band-aid, no such luck (yet) for mobile. Add to that our tiny mobile ad market - $25 million last year - and really few monetization options left for a direct to consumer approach. So most of us remain at the mercy of the operator and VAS providers to choose apps for us.

With this context, allow me to present a view of what will happen in the next few years...in my next post.


mea cupla: this post is 4 months late, I have a thousand excuses - but will spare the bs and try to write more regularly.


Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Metro and Mobiles...

One benefit of being 'car-less' is that I have to take public transportation often, especially the Delhi Metro. Our Metro can go head to head with Chicago's El, Paris' Metro or the London Tube and easily come out ahead! I especially enjoy it since it allows me to see, hear and talk to the people powering India's growth - our middle class.

It is one thing to sit in a conference room and postulate about our emerging middle-class or read a research report, and another to actually hear and understand the stories behind the numbers. My 8.00 am train to Gurgaon is full of knowledge workers (like me!). A good chunk of my co-passengers spend the entire journey staring at their mobile phones, they are listening to something, updating facebook, reading news while we are speeding underground below CP. On some days, I've counted up to 50% of the people in my compartment to be 'phone warriors' - killing time with their phone!

Since my data connection still does not work (thanks Alka!), I end up bugging people around me with questions. The best conversation starter is the phone itself - it seems we all love our phones. Though one reads mostly about low-end phones in India, I am happy to report that most of my co-travellers have true SmartPhones - connected devices that can install apps, play videos, might even have a touchscreen. They have a car but prefer to take the Metro to avoid traffic and crazy petrol costs. Many people who didn't have an official phone said that they still decided to pay for data since it helps them pass time. Of course, the user numbers are still low compared to the overall population...but this is the segment that will support the next set of mobile innovations.

On the device itself, it seems that music is the most favored activity (ignoring calls and SMS). Next was playing games, most of them downloaded for free. Facebook-ing was next as people were busy reading status updates. So all in all, content consumption seemed to rule. However I didn't see any homegrown services or local content sources (yet). Why? One reason might be what Alok articulated recently - the reluctance of the gatekeepers.

So what apps might appeal to this mobile consumer for his smart Mobile - now that he has a good device, a decent data pipe and time? More to come....

Thursday, 22 September 2011

Namaste World!

This blog is my attempt to synthesize things that I see, read and hear into some digestible structure, both for my future lookbacks and for anyone interested. My goal is to mix work with pleasure, so will try to add some flavour of life in India, and especially Gurgaon ;-).

By background, I've dabbled in a few different things in my journey thus far. I started with C++ pointers, went to Distributed Databases before discovering Free Cash Flows. Next I experimented with Build vs. Buy, bought into the power of eyeballs and finally helped create a new Groove of Music.

Today I get to learn from people much smarter than myself, and try to share tidbits from whatever little I've picked up on the way! I'm always up for a cup of coffee, or even better, cold beer ;-). My goal is a 24 hour turnaround on email, so drop me a note and test me out!

Ciao,
Nishant